San Francisco 49ersOur read
Written Mon 12:02 am Central, for week 6
Christian McCaffrey gets the stingiest run defense in football this week: Washington allows 15.2 PPR points a game to running backs, 2nd of 32 through week 5 of 2026. That hasn't budged the number, the published projection holding at 20.1 points since Sunday morning. He carries no designation on Monday's report, and the 49ers are expected to score 29.8 points at home, so the scoring chances stay with him. Five touchdowns and 18.3 PPR points a game through five weeks back that up. Start him Monday 7:15 pm Central and don't overthink a tough matchup against a back this involved.
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The number that should bother you is 35%, his share of SF's red-zone carries and targets through week 5 of 2026. Last season he took 100 red-zone touches, RB1 among 148 qualifying backs. Now he's RB18 among 65 backs with at least 20 carries and targets of their own, and only 9 of his team's 25 touches inside the ten went to him. That red-zone profile has cost players in his spot 6.4 points a game the next season on average, net of 4 factors.
He's still an easy start. 18.3 points a game across five weeks, 5 touchdowns, no missed games and no injury designation since before week 1 of 2026. The 22.6 in week 2 of 2026 and 21.6 in week 3 of 2026 show the ceiling is intact, and Shanahan still calls the plays with him listed first among SF backs. The receiving piece hasn't gone anywhere either: 25 targets in five weeks, right on the 23.5% target share that made him RB1 among 159 qualifying backs last season.
So why is he at 18.3 instead of the 24.5 he averaged over 17 games in 2025? The scoring-range usage explains most of it. Inside the ten he's RB22 among that same 65-back group, and players in that spot lost 3.1 points a game the following year. His rushing is fine, +0.3 yards a carry over expected on 61 tracked carries, so the volume isn't the issue. Our preseason number was 240 points on a 17.1-point pace over 14 expected games, and reaching it takes those red-zone touches climbing back toward where they were. With the week 8 of 2026 bye coming, hold him and expect a top-four RB finish if the goal-line work corrects.