Caleb Williams

The three games he missed in weeks 3, 4 and 5 of 2026 weigh on his case more than anything he did when healthy, because our projection of 267 points was built on 15 games and he has already burned through three of them. He carries no injury designation since before week 6 of 2026, so the missing stretch looks like it is behind him. That is the thing we would confirm before putting him back in a lineup.

When he did play, the two starts were 37.26 points in week 1 of 2026 and 7.72 in week 2 of 2026, which averages to 22.5 a game and tells you almost nothing on its own. Last season is the better guide: 18.6 points a game, QB5 among 81 qualifying quarterbacks. The rushing is a real part of the case, 107 yards in his two starts this year, plus a red-zone role that saw him take 11 red-zone touches in 2025, QB5 among 64. That is what lifted him from 14.62 points a game in 2024 to 18.63 in 2025.

The worry in the current film is pressure. He has been pressured on 34% of his 70 dropbacks through week 5 of 2026, and blitzed on 56% of all 70 charted dropbacks. His completion rate is running 3.3 percentage points over expectation on his 55 tracked attempts, QB13 among 35 quarterbacks with at least 50, and that defense-beating profile is hard to keep up all season. Our number sits 17.6 points above the 249.4 that quarterbacks drafted around his 85.4 ADP have averaged, so we expected a step forward. Hold him through his bye in week 10 of 2026, and the weeks 15 to 17 of 2026 stretch at BUF then home against GB and DET is why you drafted him.