Jacksonville JaguarsOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The six weeks he lost in 2024 were the one real worry before the season, and five weeks into 2026 he has answered it. All five games played, no injury designation since before week 1 of 2026, and 17.4 points a game that lands almost exactly on our preseason pace of 17.7. That pace came from expecting 13 games, so if the availability holds, the 230 points we projected for him looks light rather than generous.
The passing itself has aged well. He is pressured on 24% of his dropbacks and blitzed on 31% of his charted ones, and he is still completing 5.2 percentage points over expectation, QB6 among 35 quarterbacks with enough tracked attempts. Ten touchdowns and 1,174 pass yards already. The one thing he has not done this season is run or catch, zero targets and only 14 carries, so the rushing juice from 2025 has not shown up yet. That is the gap between this and the QB4 finish he posted then, and 2025 gave him plenty of short scoring work to lean on: 12 red-zone touches, QB4 among 64 qualifying quarterbacks, and 10 touches inside the ten, one spot behind Jalen Hurts. Last year he also cleared 15 points in 13 of his 17 played weeks, so the weekly bar was rarely a problem.
The real cost sits in our own comparison: quarterbacks drafted around his 91.2 ADP have historically put up about 248.5 points, and our number came in 18.2 points under that, mostly the games risk baked in. Ride him through his bye in week 7 of 2026 and keep him unless the rushing work stays at zero for another month.