Our read
Written Mon 12:02 am Central, for week 6
Purdy gets Washington at home on Monday night in week 6 of 2026, and he carries no designation on Monday's report. The published projection has him at 21.4 points, unchanged since Sunday morning. Washington sits 31st of 32 against QBs, allowing 23.2 PPR points a game through week 5, so the matchup points his way. He's thrown 14 touchdowns this season, and the 14.2 PPR points at Seattle in week 5 look more like a road stumble than a slide. Start him for the 7:15 pm Central kickoff.
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The 22.9 points a game through week 5 of 2026 is the number that matters, because it is running well ahead of the 19.3 a game our preseason pace called for over the 12 games we expected him to play. Week 2 and week 3 of 2026 both cleared 28 points, and even the 14.16 in week 5 does not sink the average. Nothing on the injury report since before week 1 of 2026, so the games concern has stayed quiet so far.
The play behind it holds up. He is pressured on only 18% of his dropbacks and has been blitzed on 30% of all 156 charted dropbacks, and he is beating both, ranking QB5 among 35 quarterbacks in completion rate over expectation at +5.5 points. Quick release, 3.05 seconds to throw, and 14 touchdowns in five games. Kyle Shanahan still calls the plays, and Purdy is listed first among SF quarterbacks.
The catch is durability. He played 9 of 17 in 2025 with five weeks lost to injury or a reserve list, and his 2024 ended with him listed Out with a right elbow. Our 231-point projection was built on 12 expected games precisely because of that history, and it sits 20 points under the about 250.6 average for quarterbacks drafted around his 83.4 ADP, an average that counts the seasons that fell apart to injuries the same way it counts the good ones. So the top of his range is real but the availability risk never left. Start him in week 6 of 2026, hold him through his week 8 bye, and if the low weeks stack up instead of the big ones, that is when you reconsider.