Houston TexansOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The accuracy is the reason to believe the start. Stroud is +6.7 percentage points over expectation on 185 tracked attempts, QB2 among the 35 quarterbacks with 50 or more tracked attempts, one spot behind Lamar Jackson. That is not a small-sample fluke number, it is the cleanest completion signal we track, and it is landing on 17.8 points a game through five weeks of 2026, well clear of the 13.7 a game we projected for him before the season. The 7 touchdowns and 1,402 pass yards back it up, and our full-season number for him still reads 205.
The downside is the legs, or the lack of them. Fifteen carries and 71 yards through five weeks, zero touchdowns on the ground, and no sign the run game is coming back. Last year he finished QB21 at 14.9 points a game, and that was with weeks 10 through 12 of 2025 lost to injury. Our board has him QB20 at the position even after the hot start, so the upside here is capped by the passing volume alone: if the touchdowns cool off, there is nothing rushing underneath to catch him.
So we would hold him as a QB2 with real weeks in him, not a guy to push over the top. Week 4 of 2026's 23.08 shows the ceiling exists. Start him when the matchup is right, sit him against tough secondaries, and the week 8 of 2026 bye is coming, so plan around it. If the carries ever show up, he moves up a tier. Until then, this is what he is.