Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Ten touchdowns through five weeks is the whole reason he is on fantasy rosters right now, and the production behind it is real. He is averaging 17.6 points a game this season, well clear of the 14.3 a game our preseason pace gave him, so the 186 points we saw for his full 2026 season are looking light against what he has actually put on tape. Most outcomes for him still fall between 141 and 231 points, and five weeks in, he is tracking the upper part of that band.
What could slow him down is pressure. He has been pressured on 24% of his 196 dropbacks, and blitzed on 39% of all 196 charted dropbacks, and that traffic shows up in the accuracy. His completion rate sits 3.8 percentage points under expectation over 185 tracked attempts, QB32 among the 35 quarterbacks with enough attempts to count. He is winning anyway on touchdowns, but a stretch of defenses that keep hitting him could shave those numbers quickly.
The shoulder that landed him on the injury report after week 16 of 2025 has not been a factor this year. He has played all five weeks with no designation at all, and the history backs him up: 15 games in both 2024 and 2025, a full 17 back in 2023. We had him 15.6 points under what quarterbacks drafted around his ADP of 139.5 usually deliver, and he is erasing that on his own.
So hold him in your lineup week to week, sit him only for his bye in week 11 of 2026, and wait on the accuracy before you lean on him for the run of MIA, CHI and HOU in weeks 15 to 17 of 2026.