Matthew Stafford

The week-to-week spread is the story more than the total: 4.1 points in week 1 of 2026, 9.68 in week 4, then 26.98, 20.9 and 27.32 around them. That is 17.8 a game through five weeks, a hair under the 18.3 preseason pace we set for him, and the swings are what a 38.6-year-old in season 18 looks like now. The good news is he is still playing clean football. He is pressured on just 15% of his dropbacks and sits at +1.8 completion percentage points over expectation, QB18 among 35 quarterbacks with 50 or more tracked attempts. Nine touchdowns and 1,572 passing yards already this season, and no injury designation at any point since the schedule began.

Remember where this came from. In 2025 he finished QB2 among 81 qualifying quarterbacks with 350 points, one spot behind Josh Allen, and he beat the position's weekly median in 13 of 17 weeks. That jump, from 13.41 points a game in 2024 to 20.61 in 2025, is why we put 256 points on him for 2026, our QB10, and why drafters took him at 74.8 overall. A 12-win team passing on 63% of situation-neutral plays behind McVay calling his own plays keeps the setup intact.

The real downside is the variance and the age, not the arm. Two of five weeks under 10 points is hard to sit through if you started him every week, and past seasons for quarterbacks drafted around his ADP came in at about 247.6 with the rough years pooled in, so he is running right at what the spot historically gives. We would keep him in the lineup every week of 2026 he is available for, and just expect a dud showing up about once a month.