Our read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
The scoring is not coming. One touchdown in five games, and the profile that was supposed to carry him, a 33.4% touchdown-points share last season, has a history: backs in his spot lost 6.5 points a game the next season once that scoring cooled. He is under our preseason pace of 11.4, and the shape of the weeks is wrong, 14.1 in week 1 of 2026 sliding to 7.6 and 7.1 by weeks 4 and 5.
The usage says he should be better. He takes 29% of his team's red-zone carries and targets in his games and 36% of the work inside the ten, both among the better backs with enough volume. He is listed first among NYG running backs ahead of Tyrone Tracy Jr. So this is not a role problem, it is a finishing problem, and the tape agrees: he is averaging 2.0 yards after contact, decent, but losing 0.5 yards a carry against expectation over 81 carries, near the bottom of qualifying backs. Heavy use, little ground gained.
There is also the 2025 shadow. In 2025 he last suited up in week 8 of 2025 and sat on a reserve listing for the rest of the year, and our games expectation of 13 was set with that risk counted. He has played every week this year, which is the good news. Our number was 148 points, RB24 on our board, and the middle range runs 112 to 184. To reach the middle he needs the scores to arrive soon, because backs in his spot were docked 6.5 points a game the next season on average when this profile turned over. Hold him into week 6 of 2026 with the week 8 of 2026 bye ahead. If the touchdowns have not shown by then, move him out for a back with cleaner efficiency.