Our read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
The touchdown dependence is what should decide how you feel about him. He scored 12.5 points a game in 2025 on a 30.9% touchdown-points share, and among backs leaning that hard on scores, points a game fell 3.1 the year after. Through five weeks of 2026 he has 2 touchdowns, and the weeks he scored, week 4 and week 5 of 2026 at 16.4 and 17.5, bookend two quiet ones. The efficiency underneath holds up: +0.1 yards over expected on his 44 tracked carries, 1.7 yards after contact a carry.
The role is real even if the scoring isn't. He's first among NE backs with TreVeyon Henderson behind him, and in 2025 his 345 receiving yards ranked RB11 even though his target share sat at just 9.4%. That receiving work keeps his quiet weeks from being dead weeks. He hasn't missed a game this season and carries no designation, and the ankle that ended his 2023 hasn't shown up since.
We had him at 156 points before the season, RB21 on our board, with 11.1 a game as the pace over the 14 games we expected. Drafters took him at 61.2, and at 11.8 a game he's right on that pace. The 24% share inside the ten is solid, not elite, so the touchdowns may not vanish entirely. That scoring-heavy profile has cost players in his spot 3.1 points a game the next season on average, so keep him through the week 11 of 2026 bye but judge him on whether the scoring holds past week 6. If the next three weeks go quiet, move on before the KC trip in week 15 of 2026.