Cleveland BrownsOur read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The case rests on whether the touchdowns catch up to the role, because the role is better than the stat line. He's getting 46% of CLE's red-zone carries and targets in his games this year, RB8 among the 65 backs with 20 or more of their own, and 58% of the carries and targets inside the ten. That's a scoring job. What he's done with it is one touchdown in five weeks, and 11.3 points a game. The efficiency underneath is the worry: he's at -0.5 rushing yards over expected a carry, 32nd among 36 backs with 25 or more tracked carries, and 1.5 yards after contact a carry sits at RB38. He's not creating on his own right now, so he needs the situation to score for him.
The reason to wait on the verdict is that the situation is new. Todd Monken and Travis Switzer are both running this offense for the first time, and week 4 of 2026, a 21.6-point game, showed the ceiling is reachable inside it. He's first among CLE backs with Dylan Sampson behind him, he hasn't missed a week, and he topped the position's weekly median in 11 of 14 games last season, so the base is a steady 12-ish scorer even before the touchdowns land.
Our preseason number was 153, RB22 on our board, and drafters took him at 49.2. He's giving you more than where he went only if weeks 6 and 7 of 2026 bring scores. Hold him through that window.