Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
Rodriguez is doing what our number expected, 5.0 points a game against the 4.8 preseason pace we set for him, and that is the trap. Our 63 points for the season assumed the scoring would carry him, and he has found the end zone twice in five games while catching one pass on one target. Strip the touchdowns and weeks 1, 2 and 5 of 2026 are his real weeks: 2.3, 1.3 and 2.1 points.
The role moved the wrong way with the team change from WAS to JAX. Last season he took 29.3% of his own touches in the red zone, seventh among 147 qualifying backs, and 19% of his touches came inside the ten. This season he has 7 of 44 JAX red-zone carries and targets, 16%, and 4 of 25 inside the ten, and he sits second on the depth chart behind Bhayshul Tuten. Last season's receiving work was already thin, 30 yards on the year and 1.2% of targets, RB107 among 158 qualifying backs. The 1.6 yards after contact a carry on 28 tries ranks RB34 among 53 backs with 25 or more carries. Backs whose points lean this hard on scores have fallen 13.7 points a game the next season on average, and that cost is showing up right on schedule.
We put him RB59 and 233rd overall for where he went in drafts, and nothing in weeks 1 to 5 of 2026 argues against us. He has not missed a week, the bye comes in week 7 of 2026, and if you rostered him as depth, that is all he is. Hold him only while your running backs are thin.