Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
21.9 a game through five weeks of 2026, six touchdowns, and 31% of Green Bay's air yards in his games, WR31 among 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets of their own. That is the profile we hoped for when our preseason number sat at 183 for the season, 13.1 a game over the 14 games we expected back then. He has beaten that pace by nearly nine points a game, and he has not missed a week all season.
The role is the deep-stretcher who now gets fed. Last season he averaged 13.2 points a game over just 10 games, and his target share climbed from 12.9% in 2024 to 19.2%. This year he has drawn 40 targets in five games and ranks WR19 among 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets of their own in red-zone share. The +1.8 yards after the catch over expectation, WR4 among 58 receivers with 10 or more tracked catches, is the part nobody expected.
There are two honest holds, and both have numbers. His separation sits at 2.3 yards, WR50 among 57 receivers with 15 or more tracked targets, and the crowded target room has knocked 0.9 points a game off players in his spot on average, while his 27.2% touchdown-points share has cost that group 0.9 a game too. And last year's 13.2 a game puts him in a spot that has docked players 1.2 points a game the next season on average. Add the hamstring history from 2023 and 2025 and the second half carries real risk.
So: start him in week 6 of 2026 and keep starting him. Hold through the bye in week 11 of 2026, and worry only if two straight weeks come without a score.