Houston TexansOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Three games, 20.9 points a game, and a 30.8-point blast in week 4 of 2026. When Collins plays, he is doing exactly what we projected, the 16.9-point pace we set before the season and the 253-point number overall. The problem is only that he has not played much. Weeks 2 and 3 of 2026 went by without him, and with his bye in week 8 still ahead, you are looking at a thin sample and an empty week soon after.
The case behind him is still the 25% target share. Among receivers in his spot, that profile has been worth about 10.1 added points a game the following year, net of seven factors. He runs 36% of the team's air yards this season, WR17 among qualifiers, so the deep work has not left town. But there is a real downside line on the page: his points a game dropped from 17.55 in 2024 to 14.95 in 2025, and this season his separation sits at 1.9 yards, WR56 among 57 tracked receivers. That shaves the margin for error when the targets do not convert.
The call: hold him, and start him every week he is active. The injury report has been clean since before week 4 of 2026, and a healthy Collins on a 12-win offense is worth more to your lineup than almost anyone you could add in his place. If the missed weeks pile up again, revisit it then.