Carolina PanthersOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The 45.2-point outburst is the eye-catcher, but the number that changes his case is the red-zone share: 16% of Carolina's red-zone carries and targets in his games this season, WR6 among 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets of their own. Last year he took just 12.3% of his own touches inside the red zone, WR100 among 223. That gap is the difference between a receiver who racks up yards and one who pays you in touchdowns, and he already has 2 of them through week 4 of 2026.
The underlying profile was always built for this. A 25% target share among players in his spot has historically meant 5.8 more points a game the following season. He is giving you 18.6 points a game on a 39-target start, and the 3.7 in week 3 of 2026 sits next to the 45.2 in week 4 of 2026, which is what a boom-heavy perimeter profile looks like.
The one number that costs him is after the catch: -0.1 yards over expectation per catch, WR40 among 58 receivers with 10 or more tracked catches. He wins with separation at the catch point, not with the ball in his hands, so bad days can get ugly fast. We set his preseason number at 231 points, 16.5 a game over the 14 games we expected, and he is beating that pace while playing every week. Canales and Idzik are back calling the same offense, and the schedule hands him CIN, PIT and SEA in weeks 15 to 17 of 2026 for the playoff run. Start him every week and stop thinking about it.