Malik Nabers

The reason to keep him arrived in the last two games. Week 2 of 2026 gave him just 1.1 points and week 3 of 2026 only 7.6, then he posted 23.2 in week 4 of 2026 and 29.1 in week 5 of 2026. He has played all five games, sitting at 14.8 a game, and our preseason pace had him at 15.8 over the 13 games we expected, so he is basically on the line we set when we put 206 points on him for the season.

The usage finally looks like a number one. That 16% red-zone share is WR8 among 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets, and his 35% slice of the team's air yards ranks WR19 in the same group. He ran a 28.7% target share last season, WR12 among 239, so the volume was never the problem. The 2024 to 2025 slide is: 18.11 points a game down to 14.28, and target share down from 34.9% to 28.7%, largely because Wan'Dale Robinson pulled 30% of the targets to his 29%. Players in that crowded-room spot lost 0.9 points a game the next season on average, and that shave is baked into our number.

Two things to watch. The -0.9 yards after the catch over expectation, WR57 among 58, says the big weeks came on volume and air yards, not play strength. And his 2025 season ended after week 4 of 2025, with weeks 5 to 13 and 15 to 18 of 2025 missed, so durability is a real question even with a clean report since before week 5 of 2026. Ride the hot stretch, hold through the bye in week 8 of 2026, and keep him in lineups at WR24-level use.