Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The air yards are what make him interesting. Through week 5 of 2026 he has claimed 41% of Jacksonville's air yards, tenth among 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets, and that kind of downfield share is what our projected 23.9% was built on. The week 5 of 2026 outburst, 30.4 points, looks like a spike, but the 16.3 a game across all five weeks is already ahead of our 13.5 preseason pace, and he has not missed a game yet.
Our number for the season is 189 points, WR28 and overall 60, and drafters moved up 12.1 picks to 50.5 before the season to get him. The case rests on a projected 21.1% target share, the kind that has lifted players in his spot 5 points a game the following year. Against that, two things dock him: a crowded target room has cost players in his spot 0.9 a game, and coming off an 11.5 average has cost them 1.2. Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. split 42% of the Jacksonville targets last season, so the room has not cleared out.
The separation number is the part to watch. He averaged 2.3 yards from the nearest defender on 32 tracked targets, WR48 among 57, and if that holds, the target share may not survive the season the projection assumes. He does win after the catch, +0.8 over expectation, WR17. Start him and ride the volume while it lasts. If the separation stays that tight over the next month, we would take him out of lineups and let other managers keep guessing on where he went before the season.