Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The 28.9 in week 1 of 2026 is doing all the work here. Strip it and he scored 4.4, 6.8, 4.3 and 1.1 across weeks 2 through 5 of 2026, and his 9.1 a game sits under the 10.9 pace we set for him before the season. The three touchdowns are real, and they are the whole line, because 138 rush yards on 52 carries is not a running back's season.
The tape numbers back the eye test. He is at 1.1 yards after contact a carry, second-worst among the 53 backs with enough carries to rank, and -0.2 rushing yards over expected on 41 tracked carries through weeks 1, 3 and 4 of 2026. What keeps him usable is scoring-range work: 40% of HOU's carries and targets inside the ten in his games, RB17, and 28% of red-zone usage, RB28 among 65 backs. That is how he scores without moving the ball. The 31.5% touchdown-points share is the worry: backs in his spot have been docked 6.2 points a game on average the following season, and that kind of scoring dependence is exactly what a decline docks hardest.
He is listed first among HOU backs with Woody Marks behind him, and our number had him at 152 points, RB23 on our board, versus where drafters took him at 51.9 before the season. With the O tag hanging over week 6 of 2026 and a week 8 bye coming, we would hold if he is on a roster but keep him benched until the contact yards return.