Our read
Written Sep 8, from his facts through last season
The number that changed everything is the target share: 5.3% in 2024 down to 2.2% in 2025. That pass-game work was the whole reason he hit RB45 and RB43 his first two seasons. Strip it and you get 2025, 41 touches, a 16% snap share, and a best week of 8.4 points. The scoring work was thin too: 5 red-zone touches all year, RB86 among qualifying backs, and just 2 touches inside the ten. Even his targets came behind the line of scrimmage, an average depth of minus 3.8 yards, RB120 among the backs who qualified. He did not miss a game to injury last year, those 9 missed weeks were healthy scratches, which is a coaching call and now a role question in a new building.
The yardage did not leave him. Yards per touch climbed from 4.2 to 5.2, so when he got the ball it still worked. What he needs in CLE is touches, and at 26 with three seasons of tape there is not much mystery left. Our number has him at 103 points for 2026, about 20 short of what running backs drafted around pick 295 usually give you, and the availability view is grim: 3 expected games, a realistic range of 0 to 9.
At 295 the cost is nothing, so this is not a decision, it is a dart. I would take him there as the last name on the roster and expect nothing until a depth chart move in Cleveland says otherwise. If someone takes him earlier than that, they are guessing on a role nobody has announced.