Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The one thing going for him is real: 2.3 yards after contact a carry on 27 carries, 11th among the 53 backs with 25 or more carries over weeks 2 through 5 of 2026. He runs like he wants the job. The job is not there. Five games have brought 27 carries, 3 targets and 106 yards, he has touched 5% of his team's red-zone carries and targets in his games, and just 9% of the carries and targets inside the ten in his games. No touchdowns through five weeks, one catch, ten receiving yards.
This is exactly the season our number drew up, which is the problem. Our preseason projection was 23 points across the 11 games we expected, a 2.1 points a game pace, and he is living on it to the decimal. Last year in Pittsburgh he scored 9 points in 10 games and never once cleared the weekly median for the position, and the depth chart we hold has him third among Green Bay backs, with Chris Brooks second and Josh Jacobs fourth.
The yards after contact earn him nothing while the touches stay this thin, so the weekly outcomes land between 2.2 and 3.2 points and go nowhere. There was no ADP for him before the season and nothing in five weeks argues anyone was wrong about that. Watch the red-zone share, not the running. If it climbs toward a real goal-line role, he becomes worth a bench look again. Until then this is a drop.