Dalton Kincaid

The hot start is aging badly. Weeks 1 and 2 of 2026 gave him 18 and 22.5 points, then 3.8, 1.7 and 1.7 the last three weeks. He is questionable going into week 6 of 2026, and his bye lands in week 7, so you will not get an answer on the field for a while either way.

What the three cold weeks hide is that the downfield role is real. He is pulling 20% of Buffalo's air yards, fourth among the 23 tight ends with at least 20 carries and targets, and he was at +2.4 yards after the catch over expectation on 12 tracked catches, third among tight ends with 10 or more, one spot behind George Kittle. That is a player the new staff is actually throwing to down the field. What he is not getting is the cheap points. Two percent of the red-zone carries and targets in his games, one of 46, and zero of 26 inside the ten, which ranks him near the bottom of that tight end group. Touches in that range have cost tight ends in his spot real points, and with one touchdown through five weeks, the profile is producing yardage and nothing else.

He is listed first among Buffalo tight ends, ahead of Dawson Knox, and the per-game number, 9.5, sits right on our preseason pace of 9.1, so the season total is not off track yet. But our 118-point projection leaned on 13 games, and he has never been durable. Hold him through Buffalo's bye in 2026 and watch whether the red-zone looks show up once he is back on the field after it. If they still have not, move him out of your lineup for good.