Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The scoring usage has not followed him into 2026. Last year he was TE6 among 126 qualifying tight ends in red-zone touches and TE3 in touches inside the ten, one spot behind Jake Ferguson. This season he is at 10% of the team's red-zone carries and targets in his games, 5 of 52, TE13 among the 23 tight ends with 20 or more of their own. That gap is why 30 targets and 22 catches have produced one touchdown and 8.7 points a game.
The rest of the profile still works. He holds 18% of the team's air yards, TE8 among that same group, so Baltimore is still sending him downfield, and he has taken the field for all five games of 2026 with no injury listing at any point this season. But the downfield looks are not converting the way they used to. His yards per target slid from 9.8 in 2024 to 6.7 in 2025, and he is averaging minus 0.2 yards after the catch over expectation on 22 tracked catches this year, TE14 among 20 tight ends with 10 or more. He is also 31 and in his ninth season, and the two tight ends behind Durham Smythe on the depth chart are not the threat. A new head coach in Jesse Minter and a new play caller in Declan Doyle mean nobody owes him anything.
So the case rests on touchdowns returning to a role that shrank. We had him at 143 points for the season, TE9 on our board, taken at 132.5 before the season. Through five weeks he is under that pace. Hold him, start him when you must, and bench him for a hotter streamer if weeks 6 and 7 of 2026 bring more of the same.