Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The catches are coming. Twenty-five targets, 21 grabs through week 5 of 2026, and the 16.2 points in week 4 of 2026 showed what a clean afternoon looks like. He also gets open, 3.6 yards of separation on average, TE6 among 18 tight ends with enough tracked targets. That is a player the quarterback trusts on short throws. The target share has been climbing too, up from 8.0% in 2024 to 12.9% in 2025, so the direction of his role was right even before this year.
What he is not getting is the part that turns catches into weeks you win. He is on 5% of LV's red-zone plays in his games and 9% of its air yards, both TE21 among 23 tight ends with 20 or more touches of their own, and his one touchdown is the whole scoring line. Worse, he has lost a yard per catch against expectation after the catch, TE20 among 20 tracked tight ends, so even the completions go nowhere. Behind Brock Bowers on the depth chart, that role is not changing while Bowers is upright.
Our number had him at 85 points for 2026. His 8.8 a game so far beats the 6.1 pace we set, but week 5 of 2026 was 1.2 and the ceiling here is a 12-point week. He has stayed healthy, which matters given he missed weeks 4 to 9 of 2024, but the range on him bottoms out fast when the catches do not move. Hold him on deep rosters only. If you need a tight end to start, look elsewhere.