Denver BroncosOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Denver is feeding him where points live. Through weeks 1 to 5 of 2026 he has 29% of the team's red-zone carries and targets, and 32% of the touches inside the ten, both RB26 among qualifying backs. That role explains the two touchdowns and the 13.6 points in week 6 of 2026 even when nothing else looked good. It is not an accident of depth chart luck, either: RJ Harvey sits second behind him in Denver, and Sean Payton calls the plays himself, so the goal-line job is his until someone takes it.
What looks bad is the efficiency. He is at minus 1 yard a carry over expected, minus 54 in all on 56 tracked carries, RB36 among the 36 qualifying backs, and his 1.7 yards after contact per carry sits at RB27 among the 53 with 25 or more carries. That costs him the explosive weeks that turn a flex into an RB2, and it is why 8.3 points a game trails the 9.5 a game our preseason pace had him on. The recent two weeks beat that figure, so maybe the line settles. We would want to see it stick one more week before trusting him in a lineup over healthier options.
The availability question never leaves him. One game in 2023, 13 of 17 in 2024, 10 of 17 in 2025, that foot keeping him out from week 11 of 2025 on. Our number before the season, 124 points, assumed 13 games, and he has delivered six straight so far with no designation since before week 3 of 2026. Hold him for now, his bye in week 10 of 2026 is the first real decision point.