Braelon Allen

The 18.6 in week 5 of 2026 is doing all the work here. Strip it out and what is left is a 4-point opener in week 1 of 2026, an 8.5 in week 2 of 2026, a 4.7 in week 3 of 2026 and an 8.7 in week 4 of 2026, which is about the season we saw coming when we put him at 62 points for the year. Eight point nine a game through five weeks sits well clear of the 3.8 he averaged in 2025, but one big week is not a case.

The case against him is the shape of his points. Nearly 39% of his value comes from touchdowns, and only two have found him so far. Backs in his spot have given back 13.7 points a game the following season on average, and the red-zone profile carries a similar 10.2-point drop. This year's usage backs some of that worry: 35% of the Jets' red-zone carries and targets in his games, RB19 among backs with 20 or more, but only 1 of 9 touches inside the ten, which is why the touchdowns are the whole meal. The rushing itself is fine, +0.8 yards a carry over expected on 48 tracked carries.

Then there is the history. Four games in 2025, weeks 5 through 18 of 2025 gone to a reserve list, and our preseason expectation was only 12 games for 2026. He has answered that so far, five starts with no designation. And that touchdown-heavy shape has docked backs like him 13.7 points a game the next year on average. We would hold him for what he did in week 5 of 2026 and for staying healthy, but we would not chase him, and if the touchdowns dry up the whole profile goes with them.