Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
He has not scored in 2026. Three games, 30 carries, 11 catches, zero touchdowns, 9.6 points a game after a season at 14.9. Then the IR placement since before week 4 of 2026, which means he plays nothing and sits below every available back on our board until he is back.
The scoring worry was flagged before the season. A 30.7% touchdown-points share like his, one that leans heavily on touchdowns, has cost backs in his spot 6.5 points a game the next season on average, net of 4 factors. The early returns say the new team is not fighting it: 19% of NO's red-zone carries and targets in his games, only 2 of 18 touches inside the ten, RB44 among 65 backs with 20 or more carries and targets of their own.
When he did play, the contact yards were thin too, 1.8 a carry on 30 carries, RB24 among 53 backs with 25 or more carries. And the 2025 scoring work lived close to the goal line, 64 red-zone touches and 32 inside the ten, both RB6 among 148 qualifying backs.
None of this erases the 2025 season, 17 of 17 games played, RB10 among 159 qualifying backs, above the weekly median every single week. That player is the reason our preseason number was 183 and his ADP sat at 36.3. But he moved from JAX to NO, the volume shape has not followed, and the bye in week 8 of 2026 is still ahead. Unless the IR tag lifts soon and the goal-line carries show up, the roster spot is worth more than the wait.