Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
Our projection gave him 32 points for the season off 3 expected games, and the season has only moved the wrong way: he did not play in any of weeks 1 through 5 of 2026 and carries an O designation going into week 6 of 2026. For a sixth-round rookie, the worst part is not the injury tag, it is that every idle week is a week the CLE staff is not installing anything around him.
The depth chart has him third behind Shedeur Sanders, with Dillon Gabriel fourth, under a brand new head coach in Todd Monken and a new play caller in Travis Switzer. Rookie quarterbacks in that spot almost never see the field early, and the first five weeks confirm that path. No one tracked an ADP for him before the season, and we have no prior season of his to lean on either.
The CLE offense he would be stepping into ran 34.1 seconds a play and passed on 51% of situation-neutral plays in 2025, for a 5-win team, so this is not a scheme begging for a change under center. Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin Jr. took 20% and 21% of the targets on CLE in 2025, 42% between them, which funnels the pass game through two established names a rookie would have to win over.
The middle range of our outcomes ran 10 to 54 points, but the low end is injury-shortened seasons, and a rookie who has missed every week so far sits closer to that low end than we hoped. We would hold him only if you can carry two idle QBs into his week 11 of 2026 bye. If you need the spot before then, the waiver wire gives you a better option for week 6 of 2026.