DK Metcalf

Nine and seven-tenths points a game through five weeks, against the 13.4 pace we set for him before the season. Week 2 of 2026 was 6.7 and week 5 was 5.3, and there's one touchdown on the year. The targets haven't gone anywhere, 37 of them through weeks 1 to 5 of 2026, so this isn't a role problem. It's a finishing problem. He's pulling in just 4% of Pittsburgh's red-zone touches in his games, 1 of 28, when last season he had 14 red-zone touches and ranked 9th among 224 receivers on touches inside the ten.

The reason we'd wait is what the ball is doing once it's in the air. His air-yards share this season is 35%, 21st among 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets, up from 30.7% a year ago, and he's at +0.9 yards after the catch over expectation, 13th among 58 tracked receivers. The deep targets are flowing and he's doing something after the grab. What docks him is tight coverage, 2.1 yards of separation from the nearest defender, 53rd among 57 tracked receivers. Pressed throws like that cut down on easy catches even when the targets keep coming.

The preseason case is still on the table. Receivers with his 22.5% target share added about five points a game the following year on average, and our projection has him at 188 points with most outcomes landing between 152 and 224, injuries being what drags the low end down. He hasn't missed a week yet, the bye lands in week 9 of 2026, and the schedule turns friendly in weeks 15 to 17 of 2026. We would hold him and keep starting him, but if week 6 of 2026 and week 7 of 2026 both stay under ten points, we'd look at the waiver wire before trusting him in week 8.