Josh Downs

The Colts shrank Josh Downs' job and nobody has given it back. His target share fell from 25.6% in 2024 to 17.7% in 2025, and Tyler Warren plus Michael Pittman took 42% of the targets between them in 2025. A crowded room like that has cost players in his spot 0.9 points a game on average from one season to the next, and it is why our board puts him at WR41 overall rank 99 even though drafters took him at 94 before the season. We had him for 165 points this season.

Five weeks into 2026 the pie has not grown. He has played every week, but 9.0 points a game sits under the 11.0 a game our preseason pace carried, and 34 targets with zero touchdowns says the scoring part never arrived. He holds just 9% of team red-zone carries and targets in his games, WR39 among 64 qualified receivers, when a year ago he was WR20 in red-zone touches. He is pulling 30% of the team's air yards and running +1.2 yards after the catch over expectation, WR11 among 58 qualified receivers.

Do not talk yourself into 2024 as the baseline. He was WR35 that year at 183.5 points, then WR43 among 240 in 2025 at 138.4, topping 15 points in only 2 of 16 weeks. The step back, not the step up, is the recent trend, though players in his spot do gain 1.2 a game the next season on average. Hold him for depth, start him only when a matchup or an injury opens a door, and watch whether week 6 of 2026 brings targets closer to the 2024 shape.