Garrett Wilson

The 17.3 a game through five weeks of 2026 is the number that matters, because the question coming into the season was never talent, it was whether he would be on the field. He has played all five weeks and the injury report has carried no designation since before week 1 of 2026. But remember how 2025 ended: Out, knee, from week 11 of 2025 on, ten games gone in total. We set his preseason pace at 16.1 points a game, and if the knee holds he is tracking right at it. Over a full season that path lands him near our 226 points, with the top of the range reaching 309 if everything holds together.

The profile is heavy volume, light runway. He eats 43% of his team's air yards, eighth among 64 qualifying receivers, and he took a third of New York's targets last season, up from 26.0% in 2024. But the scoring-range work is scarce. Eight percent of the team's red-zone carries and targets this season, and in 2025 he had 4 red-zone touches and one look inside the ten. For receivers with a 34% share like his, that profile has cost 1.1 points a game the next season on average, and his 24.1% touchdown-points share comes with a 0.9 fall among his peers. A 5.5 win projection for the Jets carries its own 0.8 drop. He is still listed first among the New York receivers, with Adonai Mitchell behind him, so the targets are not going anywhere.

So the case is volume now, touchdowns never quite arriving. That keeps him a hold at 17.3 a game, but the bye in week 13 of 2026 and a shaky offense cap what he can be.