Dallas CowboysOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
One touchdown in five weeks is the whole gap between a frustrating start and a fine one. Strip that out and the 13.7 points a game is less alarming than it looks: 41 targets and 355 receiving yards say the volume never left, and week 5 of 2026's 28 points is the first week the scores caught up to the catches.
What actually worries us is the separation, 2.3 yards from the nearest defender puts him WR49 among 57 tracked receivers, and he is losing 0.5 yards a catch after the grab against expectation, WR52 among 58. That profile cost him easy points, and it is why the 34% air-yards share, up from 31.4% last season, has not fully turned into points yet. The crowded room behind Lamb docks players in his spot 0.9 points a game, a small shave but a real one when the touchdown total is this thin.
Still, the base case holds. We had him WR8 at receiver and 12th overall before the season, at 271 points, and nothing in five weeks says the talent or the role moved. Last season he cleared 15 points in 7 of his 17 weeks, and he topped the position's weekly median in 16 of 17, so a cold month has rarely been in his history. Our preseason pace for him was 18.1 points a game, and weeks 1 through 4 of 2026 never got there before week 5 of 2026 blew past it. He missed nothing to injury, the staff is unchanged, and the deep-ball diet in Dallas keeps his weeks from going empty even when the end zone does. We would hold him through the quiet stretch and keep starting him, and treat week 5 of 2026 as the correction rather than the spike.