Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
Flowers is beating the pace we set for him. Our projection was 252 points for 2026 on the 15 games we expected from him, 16.8 a game, and he is running at 20.5 a game through the weeks played so far in 2026, even with the miss. The one game he sat out this season was week 2 of 2026. He carries no injury designation heading into his next game in 2026, and the last two seasons say he plays 17.
The 29% target share he held in 2025 is what drove him to finish seventh among qualifying receivers in points and sixth in receiving yards. Receivers in his spot have added 10.1 points a game the following season on average, net of seven factors, and the 86.6% snap share has added 8 more on its own. He is second among tracked receivers in yards after the catch over expectation this year, +2.8 a catch, so the ball keeps turning into something.
The real downside is the scoring range. His red-zone share of his own touches was 9.4% last season, 135th among 223, and only 12 red-zone touches all year. He has run at 11% of Baltimore's red-zone carries and targets through five weeks of 2026, better but not close to the top of the board, and the 10.2-yard average depth of target caps how often he scores. That mix has cost receivers in his spot real points a game.
Start him every week from now until his bye in week 13 of 2026. If the red-zone touches climb, he is on a WR13 finish or better.