Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Third on the depth chart in a new uniform, and the first five weeks of 2026 have not argued with the depth chart. Allen has played four games, sat week 4 of 2026, and come out at 9.6 points a game with one touchdown on 29 targets. Only 17% of the team's air yards have gone his way, WR53 among the 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets, and that is the number that keeps him out of lineups: at an 8.4-yard average depth of target last season he needed volume to matter, and the deep share says the volume is thinner here.
The target share has been sliding for a while, down from 27.3% in 2024 to 22.4% in 2025, and Warren and Pittman took 42% of IND's targets between them last season. That pecking order costs him. The one hopeful read is the 22.6% projection: receivers in his spot gained 9.2 points a game on average the next season, net of six factors, and he was WR28 with 10.8 a game in 2025, above the weekly median in 15 of 17 weeks. He also played all 17, after missing four in 2023 with the heel.
We saw 10.0 points a game from him before the season and he is at 9.6 through five weeks, so nothing has broken the projection yet. The season total we liked, 140 for the year at WR52, sits a touch ahead of the 136.7 where drafters took him. The problem is not efficiency, it is ceiling. Hold him for the week 13 bye and the stretch at TEN, CIN and CLE in weeks 15 to 17 of 2026, but he sits on benches until the targets show up.