Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
8.9 points a game through six weeks is the whole problem. We projected 218 for the season on a 14.5 a game pace, and he is running well short of that, with one spike in week 2 of 2026 and three weeks under 5 points. The scoring is where the fantasy points are leaking: one touchdown in six games, and a red-zone share of just 8% of Denver's carries and targets across weeks 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 of 2026, WR44 among qualifying receivers. That is not a role that fixes itself on talent alone.
The case for patience is real, though. He still wins. 4.0 yards of separation on tracked targets, WR5 among 57 receivers, and a 35% air-yards share, WR20, say the downfield role followed him from Miami to Denver. The 22.8% target share he posted in 2025 was a jump from 16.2% the year before, and players in his spot gained 5 points a game the next season on average. But the crowded Denver room, where Sutton and Franklin combined for 39% of 2025 targets, has cost comparable players 0.9 a game, and the 3.5 expected wins dock another 0.8. Those two shaves are why our number, 218, sits above last year's 194 but not by much.
He is listed first among Denver receivers and has not missed a game, so the volume path is there. With the bye in week 10 of 2026 still ahead, we would hold him and wait on the scoring to arrive. Bench him only if you cannot afford another month of this.