Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The red-zone number is why he is on rosters at all: 17% of Carolina's red-zone carries and targets in his games this season, fifth among 64 receivers with at least 20 touches of their own. Last year he had 3 red-zone touches all season, ranked 114th. That is a real change in how the offense uses him, and it is what turned 22 targets into 2 touchdowns and 17.4 points a game through week 3 of 2026.
The catch is the rest of the season. He missed week 4 of 2026, then came the bye in week 5, so we have three weeks of this and nothing else. Two of the three tracked-tune numbers are ugly: -0.3 yards after the catch over expectation a catch, 47th of 58, and his separation work is fine but only weeks 1 and 2 of 2026 are charted. In 2025 he played 11 games, and the year before 11 again, so expecting him to hold this role for a full run is the generous read. Our own preseason projection gave him 13 games and 130 points, and the crowded room behind McMillan and Legette has historically taken about 0.9 points a game off receivers in his spot from one year to the next.
The shape of last season is the warning: 8 of 11 weeks above the position's median but over 15 points in just 2 of them, and a zero in week 7 of 2025 when things went badly. This looks like a hold. The usage is better than anything he showed in 2025, so keep him while it lasts, and if the red-zone share fades over the next few weeks, that is your cue to move on.