Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Five weeks into 2026 he has 7 targets, 5 catches and 30 yards, good for 1.6 points a game. Last season he beat the position's weekly median in only 4 of 13 games, so this is not a slow start to a good role, it is the same role he has always had, now in a worse spot. TEN threw on 54% of situation-neutral plays in 2025 and ran 35.2 seconds a play, yet Elic Ayomanor and Calvin Ridley took 34% of the targets between them, and Bellinger is listed second behind Gunnar Helm anyway.
The one thing that has genuinely improved is efficiency. His points a game climbed from 2.21 in 2024 to 4.58 in 2025, and his yards per target went from 7.4 to 11, with an average depth of target of 9.4 yards that ranked ninth among 125 qualifying tight ends. But a low-aDOT profile with 6 red-zone touches and 1 inside the ten last season caps what that efficiency can turn into, and 23.1% of his own touches coming in the red zone is not the kind of volume that scales in a new offense.
We expected about 4.9 points a game from him before the season and he is giving us 1.6. Injuries are not part of the problem, he has played every week, missed only week 9 of 2025 over two years, and carries no designation now. If anything the 42-point low tail is the only tail injuries touch. We would let him go in anything but a 16-team TE format, and even there he is a placeholder until after his bye in week 9 of 2026.