Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Something has changed over the last three weeks. After scoring nothing in week 1 of 2026 and again in week 2 of 2026, he ran up 5 in week 3 of 2026, 9.9 in week 4 of 2026 and 8.7 in week 5 of 2026. That 4.7 points a game through five games now sits above the 4.3 pace we set before the season. Our projection had him at 64 points for the full year, and a month like this is how he closes some of that gap. One catch for a touchdown in week 4 of 2026 did some of that work, but 8 targets and 96 yards in five games is not nothing for a tight end we held no preseason pick number on.
The problem above him has not moved. He is listed second among ARI tight ends, and last season Trey McBride and Michael Wilson took 48% of the targets between them, which shaves away most of the leftover work. His own 2025 profile was shallow anyway: 6% of targets, an average target depth of 4.0 yards, and 5 red-zone touches all season. That is a chain-mover's role, and chain-movers at tight end need volume to matter. He got 30 touches all of last year, on just 41.9% of the snaps. The one clear week he had, 16.1 points in week 16 of 2025, came in his only week above 15 points in 17 tries.
So the case is a hot month against a capped role. We would hold him only as McBride insurance, and if you need to talk him up to anyone, the last three weeks are about the best you will ever get. Week 6 of 2026 tells us little. A McBride injury tells us everything.