Dawson Knox

The 2026 numbers are the whole problem: five games, 9 targets, 7 catches, 36 yards, 3.3 points a game. Week 2 of 2026, 8.5 points, is his best week, and three of five weeks sit under 2.0 points. A tight end living on checkdowns and a touchdown here or there needs more volume than that, and the targets are simply not coming.

The depth chart matters here. Kincaid is listed first in Buffalo and Knox is second, and last season's target share of 10.2% already ranked TE40 among 137 qualifying tight ends. Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman took 37% of the targets between them in 2025, so the scraps behind them were always thin. What kept Knox fantasy-relevant last year was scoring-range work, 12 red-zone touches and 7 inside the ten, both top-16 marks at the position. He has 1 touchdown through five weeks of 2026, so even that part has not shown up yet.

There was a real arrow coming into this year. His points per game climbed from 4.22 in 2024 to 6.36 in 2025, he beat the position's weekly median in 11 of 16 games, and he stayed healthy all season. But our preseason number was 74 points, built on 4.9 a game over 15 expected games, and the first month of 2026 is running far under that pace. The mid-range we set, 58 to 90, only happens if the volume comes back, and nothing in the first five weeks says it will.

The call: unless you need blocking-depth insurance at tight end, drop him and stream the position. If Kincaid misses time, revisit, because Knox's red-zone usage is the one path back to relevance.