Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The 19.3 points in week 3 of 2026 is the only reason anyone is asking about him, and it came on three touchdowns off 13 targets all season. That pace does not survive. He catches the ball so close to the line, 3.3 yards downfield on average last season, TE99 among 125 qualifying tight ends, that without the touchdowns he is a low-ceiling short-catch tight end, and the 1.7 points in week 5 of 2026 is what those weeks look like.
The role is the problem. He is listed second among NO tight ends behind Juwan Johnson, and his target share fell from 13.4% in 2024 to 7.4% in 2025, a slide that cost him a real slice of his production. In New Orleans, Olave and Johnson took 47% of targets between them in 2025, and that was before Fant arrived. He also sat out week 4 of 2026, though there is no injury designation since before week 5.
We expected 48 points from him for 2026, TE77 on our board, about 3.4 a game, and his 8.6 points a game this season sits mostly on one week. The one thing his case has going is history: players in his spot gained 1.3 points a game on average in the season after averaging 5.8. That is not enough to make him worth a roster spot in a 12-team league. If you need a tight end, find someone with a real target route. If he is filling a bye-week hole before his week 8 of 2026 bye, that is the only week he helps you.