Jake Ferguson

The touchdowns are doing all the work. Three scores in five games have him at 8.2 points a game through week 5 of 2026, which sounds fine until you look at what the role has become. He is in on 8% of his team's red-zone carries and targets in his games, 7% of the team's air yards, and 8% of the carries and targets inside the ten. Last year he sat TE3 among 126 qualifying tight ends in red-zone touches and TE2 in touches inside the ten. That fall from the top of the league to the middle of it is the biggest reason to worry about what he scores from here.

The fade started before this season. From weeks 1 to 4 of 2025 to weeks 15 to 18, his snap share fell from 71% to 57% and his target share from 23% to 10%. Lamb and Pickens combined for 46% of Dallas targets last year, and there is no sign Ferguson is winning any of it back. His average depth of target this season is 4.5 yards, near the bottom of qualifying tight ends, so he needs the end zone to pay off a catch.

We had him at 131 points for 2026, TE15 on our board, off a TE6 finish in 2025 with 83 touches. He has not missed a game and there is no injury designation, so the availability risk has not shown up. But the usage numbers have to turn before the points do. Hold him in deeper leagues where tight ends are scarce, and if the red-zone share is still single digits by week 8 of 2026, move him for whatever a tight end on the way up brings back.