Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The case against him is two straight seasons of collapse, not one bad stretch. His scoring went from 7.08 points a game in 2024, a TE21 finish among 111 qualifying tight ends, down to 2.77 a game in 2025 and 3.0 a game through four weeks of 2026. That is not a role change you can pin on one offseason. The year-over-year drop in yards per catch of a target, from 8.8 to 4.8, says the efficiency left with it.
The role cannot carry him anyway. He is listed second among Kansas City tight ends behind Travis Kelce, and in 2025 Rashee Rice took 29% of the targets and Kelce took 20%, 48% between them, while Gray's own target share sat at 7.2%. His red-zone share of his own touches was 5.4%, TE99 among 126 qualifying tight ends, and he finished 2025 with two red-zone touches all season. This year: eight targets, six catches, 61 yards, no scores. Week 3 of 2026 was his peak at 6.9 points.
Availability was never the problem. He played 16 of 17 in both 2023 and 2024 and 14 of 17 last year, with one injury week in week 13 of 2025, and there is no designation on him now. The cost is everything around it. We had him at 73 points for the season with 15 games expected, and even that rested on a rebound that four weeks have not started. Drop him and use the spot on a week-to-week flier.