Our read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
He has scored twice this season on 29 carries, and New Orleans keeps sending him where scores happen, 23% of the team's carries and targets inside the ten and 18% of its red-zone looks across weeks 1 to 5 of 2026. That is the case in full. He is third among the New Orleans backs behind Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara, so the touches only come in scoring spots, and when he is not scoring he is barely producing. Weeks 3 and 4 of 2026 came in at 3.9 and 1.9 points before the 9 in week 5.
The contact numbers say the role outruns the player. 1.2 yards after contact a carry, 51st among the 53 backs with 25 or more carries, means he is not creating anything once he is hit. Every point he gives you comes from the touchdown design, and Kamara is still ahead of him in that pecking order too.
The durability record is the part that should cap your expectations. Seven games in 2025, six in 2024, seven in 2023, ten games missed to injury or a reserve list in each of the last two seasons, and week 2 of 2026 already went by without him. Our preseason number was 46 points over 11 expected games, about 4.2 a game, and he is running at 6.0 with the touchdowns carrying it. That gap is the touchdowns, and touchdowns on 23% of inside-ten work are not guaranteed to keep coming. Keep him stashed if you have the bench room, because the scoring usage is genuine, but do not talk yourself into starting him ahead of a locked-in back.