Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Four games of 0.9 points a game, then an IR placement before week 5 of 2026. That is the season so far, and it matches the shape of the whole career: 7 games in 2025, 1 in 2023, and never a week above 15 points in any season he has played. We set him at 44 points for 2026 on 12 expected games, about 3.7 a game, and he never got close to that pace before the hip landed him out. Two catches for 15 yards on 2 targets in four weeks tells you how little he was getting even while he was out there.
The team change was supposed to be the argument for him, and it never was. He is listed third among ARI tight ends, behind Trey McBride and Elijah Higgins, and McBride took 27% of the targets here in 2025 with Michael Wilson another 20%, so the leftover work for a third tight end sits around 5% of targets, which is roughly what Long ran at in Jacksonville on a 41% snap share. His best 2025 trait, a red-zone touch rate of 23.5% among his own touches, only matters when the touches exist, and 12 touches in 7 games do not create them. His yards per target also fell from 6.7 in 2024 to 5 in 2025, so even the little volume was producing less. The 1.2 touchdown share has gone with players in his spot losing 0.7 points a game on average from one season to the next, and his 2026 has run well under even that.
So the decision writes itself. While the injury report holds him, he plays nothing, and our board puts him behind every available tight end anyway. Drop him, even in the deepest league, and find a weekly option instead.