Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Zero targets in three games played. Nothing else about him matters until he gets one. Koziol missed weeks 1 and 2 of 2026, then suited up for weeks 3, 4 and 5 and never got a look, 0.0 points a game to show for it. He has carried no injury tag in 2026 since he first dressed, so those early scratches read like a coaching choice, and the choice went against a rookie.
Jacksonville spent a fifth-rounder on him in 2026, and it has not kept him off the bottom of the tight end group. Brenton Strange holds the top job, Nate Boerkircher is ahead of him too, and Quintin Morris sits behind. At 22.6 on opening day with no prior season on record anywhere, everything we projected was guesswork wearing a uniform. Our preseason number was 50 points over the 12 games we expected, about 4.2 a game, and the first three weeks of actual football have not moved one inch toward that.
The one thing in his favor is context rather than production. JAX threw the ball a lot in 2025, 59% of situation-neutral plays, and Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. absorbed 42% of the targets between them, so there was room for a tight end and nobody else grabbed it. But room behind Strange is not a role, and Strange has it. The bye hits in week 7 of 2026, so nothing changes this week anyway. Hold him only if your tight end room is thin and your waiver wire is bare. Otherwise a live body beats a third tight end with no targets.