Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The whole season is one week old. Week 2 of 2026 gave him 12.8 points and both his touchdowns, and weeks 1, 4, 5 and 6 of 2026 gave him nothing. Four catches and 40 yards on 5 targets through six games is the real picture, and the spike is the noise.
The depth chart explains it. He's third among Denver tight ends behind Evan Engram and Adam Trautman, and in 2025 he ran routes on a 3.2-yard average depth, ranked TE101 among 125 qualifying tight ends. That is a blocker's profile in an offense where Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin took 39% of the targets between them last season. Sean Payton calls the plays himself and hasn't found a use for him beyond spot duty.
The knee matters too. He played 6 of 17 games in 2025, with the injury report ruling him out in week 1 of 2025, week 2 of 2025, week 9 of 2025, week 10 of 2025, week 11 of 2025, week 13 of 2025, week 14 of 2025 and week 17 of 2025, which is why we expected only 13 games from him this year. Clean injury report since before week 1 of 2026, credit to him, but players in his spot have historically dropped about 0.7 points a game from one season to the next, and his yards per target already fell from 7.7 in 2024 to 4.4 in 2025.
We set his preseason pace at 3.0 points a game, and he's actually running a touch ahead of that at 3.4, but the last three weeks say the early spike isn't holding. Hold nothing here. He's worth a roster spot only as handcuff insurance if Engram gets hurt, and nothing else.