Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The targets tell you everything. They went from 26.2% of the passing game in 2024 to 16.2% in 2025, and this season he sits at 16.3% of Seattle's looks through week 5 of 2026. Jaxon Smith-Njigba took 36% of the 2025 targets, and Kupp is now listed third among SEA receivers behind him and Rashid Shaheed. The volume that made him matter in LA is gone, and at 33.2 years old, in his tenth season, nothing on this page suggests it comes back.
He does stay on the field. A 75.8% snap share last season, WR44 among 239 qualifying receivers, is real work, and among players in his spot that kind of snap load has come with a 5.1-point per-game rise the next season. That is the best argument for him. But the crowded target room behind it has cost players in his spot 0.9 points a game on average, and the points have fallen faster than that: 14.58 a game in 2024 down to 7.14 in 2025, 6.7 this year.
Our projection was 112 points before the season, against a 13-game expectation and an 8.6-point preseason pace. Through six games he is under that pace, with one usable week, the 14.6 in week 3 of 2026. Injuries are what pull the low end of the range down, and so far in 2026 he has stayed clear of them, with no designation on the report since before his third game. Still, we would not start him outside deep leagues, and the bye comes in week 11 of 2026. If a week of his old name comes back, move him to someone who needs a receiver.