Khalil Shakir

The zero in the touchdown column is the whole problem through five weeks. Eighteen catches, 256 yards, no scores, and 8.3 points a game where our preseason pace had 11.2. That gap is touchdowns, nothing else. The third week of 2026 brought a 1.6-point stinker, but it sits between two usable games, so the targets are still coming.

Here is why we are not panicking. On 20 tracked targets spread across three of his first four games of 2026, his 4.4 yards of separation on average leads all 57 receivers charted, the best mark at the position. Guys who get that open convert eventually, even with a shallow 3.7-yard average depth of target from last season that left him WR208 in the league. The case we built before the season rested on his 21.1% target share, and players in his spot gained 4.2 points a game on average the following year with that profile. He is not broken. He is unpaid on the scores so far.

The real drag is scoring-range work: just 11% of Buffalo's red-zone touches in his games this year and 13.5% of his own touches inside there last season, both weak. With Joe Brady and Pete Carmichael Jr. both new calling the shots, that could loosen up or stay stuck. Our projection had 168 for the season, and the middle range starts at 139. Hold him through the week 7 bye, play him when the bye crunch forces it, and only think about moving on if week 8 of 2025 style spikes never show up.