Our read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
Sixth in the league at 3.4 yards of separation per tracked target, that is what stands out from weeks 1, 2 and 4 of 2026. He is getting open the way a first-round receiver should. What he is not doing is turning it into points, 8.3 a game across his four played weeks, one touchdown, and a 4.8 in week 1 of 2026 that still anchors his totals.
Where drafters took him before the season, pick 106.9, history says about 144 points for players in that spot, and we went above it, 160 for the season, because of the playing time plus the air yards. He ran routes on 70.3% of KC's snaps last season and now holds 25% of the team's air yards, up from 22%. The ball is going downfield toward him. What stops it from becoming a top-of-the-lineup season is the room around him. Rice took 29% of KC's targets in 2025 and Kelce another 20%, and among receivers in Worthy's situation, a crowded depth chart has taken about 0.9 points a game off the line. His own red-zone share sits at just 10% of team carries and targets in his games this season, so the touchdowns are thin too.
The scoring has moved the wrong way for two straight seasons, 11.7 points a game in 2024 down to 7.85 in 2025. That slide is why he sits at WR46 for us and not higher. We would hold him for now, because the open looks say the ceiling is intact, but if week 6 of 2026 brings another single-digit week behind Rice and Kelce, the hold gets short.