Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Dallas listed him third on the depth chart, and the first five weeks of 2026 played out exactly that way. 27 targets and 16 catches read fine until you get to the zeros: no carries, no touchdowns, 194 yards. He has not topped 12 points in any week, and a zero in the scoring column every week is what happens when your air-yard share is 12% of the team's and Lamb and Pickens eat 46% of the targets between them.
The one thing we like is the 3.3 yards of separation, ninth among 57 receivers with enough tracked targets over weeks 2 to 4 of 2026. He gets open. Then he catches it and goes nowhere: minus a yard after the catch per catch, last among 58 qualifying receivers. Open with nowhere to run is a poor recipe for a fourth-option receiver whose average depth of target sat at 8.3 yards last season.
This is the crowded-room tax working as advertised. Receivers in his spot lost 0.9 points a game from one season to the next on average, and we expected a pace of 8.1 points a game from him before the season, a bit better than the 7.1 he has given so far. Even the high end of our range tops out at 154 points, and that takes everything going right. He has not been worth where he went before the season, 166.8. You can leave him on your bench and check the wire every week. We would need an injury to Lamb or Pickens before he earns a start, because that is the only path to the target volume this profile needs.