Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
One good week is carrying the line so far. He went 4.5, 5, 3.9, then 13.2 in week 4 of 2026, then back down to 4 in week 5. That is 6.1 points a game against the 7.8 a game we expected from him before the season, and it is why he is tracking under our preseason number. He has played every week, which matters more than usual for a rookie, but he has cleared 6 points exactly once.
The encouraging part is how he is being used. His average target travels 16.4 yards, WR8 among the 85 receivers with at least 15 targets, and he has dropped just one of his 17. That is a real downfield role, not a gimmick. The problem is the depth chart: he is listed fourth in New York, behind Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney, and Nabers plus Wan'Dale Robinson absorbed 58% of the targets here in 2025. A deep role with a shallow pecking order produces one spike a month, not one a week.
Our number for him was 101 points over 13 expected games, and we had him at WR78 overall rank 213. The idea there was always that a rookie needs half a season to grow into a role like this. The 13.2-point game in week 4 of 2026 is the closest thing to proof, and one game is not proof. If he is on a deep roster, holding costs you almost nothing and the depth-of-target gives him a path. On a shallower team, you can drop him for a weekly producer and revisit if the targets start climbing after his bye in week 8 of 2026.