Rashod Bateman

The week 2 of 2026 spike, 21.8 points, is doing all the work in his line. Take it out and this is a 5 to 11 point receiver, which matches who he was in 2025: 4.1 a game, WR103, above the weekly median just four times in 13 games. His preseason number, 122 points, always leaned on him returning to something like his 2024 self, and five weeks in there is no sign of it.

What broke, and has not fixed itself: yards per target went from 10.5 in 2024 to 5.9 in 2025, and the target room is still crowded, with Flowers and Andrews combining for 46% of Baltimore's targets last year. This season Bateman sits at 4% of the team's red-zone carries and targets, 2 of 52 in his games, so the scoring paths are thin. Our preseason pace was 8.1 a game over 15 expected games. He has played all five weeks, and he is at 9.1. Close, but the shape is wrong, built on one big week and one catch-less zero in week 1 of 2026.

The live trait is real: 3.2 yards of average separation on tracked targets, WR10 among 57, so he can separate even if the volume has not followed. There is also a historical drag worth naming: receivers drafted around his ADP of 155.2 averaged about 112.6 points with the busts pooled in, and from 2024 to 2025 players in his situation lost about 0.9 a game. That docks him further. He is carrying a Q tag going into week 6 of 2026, and the bye lands in week 13. If you have a deeper roster, hold and watch whether the separation turns into targets. In a 12-team league, a waiver move frees the spot for someone with a real role.